Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+5DET

DET

4-8-4

BOS

8-9

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,395 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

BOS

.713

OPS

◀

.718

.694

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.19

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.76

Team ERA

4.18

3.74

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 7 · BOS 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	7
BOS	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.125	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. McGonigleSS	.318	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.381	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.150	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.222	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. CruzCF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.375	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.316	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Anderson2B	.231	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.438	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HadeenSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CallahanLF	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
MacdonaldUN	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. NidoC	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PenneySS	.250	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. RuckerSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.300	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		34	7	10	7	2	3	8

Player

.125

.318

.381

.150

.222

.227

.375

.316

.231

.438

.333

.286

.429

.000

.250

.250

.500

.300

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MaddenSP	3.2	2	1	1	3	2	60
R. VanascoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	18
T. KohlheppSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
J. LittleRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	27
T. MichaelRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	23
Y. SanchezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	4	2	2	7	6	153

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Campbell2B	.207	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.346	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.353	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.389	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.364	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. WardCF	.448	1	2	0	0	0	2	1
T. McDonoughOF	.261	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. MonasterioSS	.368	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.097	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Capra3B	.053	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ThaissC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. AzocarCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. FerminOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		27	2	4	1	0	7	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	4.0	3	2	2	1	4	59
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	14
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
W. OldsRP	1.2	1	2	2	1	2	36
M. SansoneRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	9
C. AdamsRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	22
Team	9.0	10	7	7	3	8	156

Team

DET

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs DET.