Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

4-8-2

PHI

5-8-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,707 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

PHI

.699

OPS

.718

.704

.310

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.41

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

4.15

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 1 · PHI 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. SanchezRF	.227	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.346	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.450	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.176	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.462	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.389	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.316	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.529	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Keys3B	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. ClaseLF	.267	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
E. DuranC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Coffey3B	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	5	1	0	2	7

Player

.176

.227

.346

.450

.222

.176

.462

.389

.316

.529

.167

.211

.267

.000

.118

.167

.143

.071

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	4.0	0	0	0	1	1	40
C. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
J. FlemingRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	12
L. EstradaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	19
C. SeaboldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
Team	9.0	2	0	0	2	6	105

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

105

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.583	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MooreCF	.188	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. De La CruzOF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. BritoSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. FergusLF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. McIntoshC	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	0	2	0	0	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	0	34
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
T. BanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
D. HarperRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
G. CabreraRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	19
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	7	121

Team

TOR

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs TOR.