Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+4KC

CIN

6-6

6-7-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,582 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.707

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

4.59

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.43

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CIN 2 · KC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2
KC	1	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.550	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. Stewart1B	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.235	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. TrevinoC	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand1B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.412	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. AllenCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Urbaez2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Hampson2B	.063	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.400	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. DunoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JorgeCF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. LewisSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. SasakiCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	8	2	0	4	7

Player

.250

.550

.400

.316

.235

.429

.231

C. Encarnacion-Strand1B

.333

.412

.000

.000

.063

.182

.400

.000

.000

.333

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LodoloSP	3.0	6	1	1	2	4	58
S. BenschoterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. FergusonRP	0.2	5	5	5	2	0	28
T. KunclSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	13
H. DannerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
A. MisiewiczRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	8.0	13	6	6	5	8	148

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.308	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.286	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. Drury2B	.188	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.353	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
K. Newman3B	.273	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.800	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.200	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
D. WatersLF	.200	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.267	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. Becker1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RoccaforteCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kulasingham1B	.429	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VazquezSS	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CericeP	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SailorsOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. BrownC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. TorresCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	13	5	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	3.0	3	0	0	2	3	52
A. SanchezSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	33
H. OlivarezSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
S. PanziniSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
H. PattesonSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
B. WayRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	2	2	4	7	135

Team

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs CIN.