San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+6CLE

7-8

CLE

8-8

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

7,360 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CLE

.664

OPS

.718

▶

.676

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.312

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

3.93

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.77

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

SD 1 · CLE 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CLE	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.308	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. JohnsonRF	.320	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.438	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.375	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. RodríguezRF	.353	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Solak1B	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. SalasC	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. OrnelasLF	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. KarpathiosRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.353	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JacksonUN	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Castanon2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	10	1	0	1	12

Player

.308

.320

.438

.375

.375

.353

.364

.143

.188

.222

.273

.000

.353

.000

.250

.167

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	3.2	3	3	3	2	2	73
G. HawkinsRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	22
C. LoewenRP	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	19
J. WolfSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	22
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	8.0	9	7	7	5	3	145

Player

3.2

0.2

0.2

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.222	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. ValeraLF	.286	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.294	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
G. AriasSS	.286	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.167	3	2	1	1	0	1	0
R. Hoskins1B	.200	3	1	2	4	1	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.318	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
A. HedgesC	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RosarioRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. RodriguezRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CurleySS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Kieboom3B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RodriguezSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. HuffC	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AntunezRF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	7	9	7	1	5	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	4.0	5	1	1	1	3	53
D. EspinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	12
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
P. PalletteRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	32
F. AlemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	10	1	1	1	12	138

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs SD.