Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

5-10

BOS

7-7

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,173 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jake BennettBOS
2.0± 2.3low
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 0 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WilliamsSS	.313	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. OlivaresRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. KeeganC	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Morgan1B	.077	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Polanco2B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SantanaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. PiperC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		20	0	3	0	0	1	5

Player

.313

.200

.267

.238

.231

.000

.091

.077

.167

.000

.200

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JohnsonSP	2.1	1	1	1	2	3	47
K. WhitleyRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	13
M. EnglertRP	2.1	3	1	0	0	1	27
Team	5.1	4	2	1	3	5	87

Player

T. JohnsonSP

2.1

K. WhitleyRP

0.2

M. EnglertRP

2.1

Team

5.1

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Campbell2B	.227	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.368	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Mayer2B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.313	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.385	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. RomeroSS	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalesCF	.400	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. BleisRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		19	2	4	1	0	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OviedoSP	3.1	2	0	0	0	4	47
W. OldsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Z. KellyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
Team	6.0	3	0	0	1	5	80

Team

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TB.