Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

MIN

3-10-1

BAL

7-6-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

6,197 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

BAL

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.715

.321

OBP

.319

.318

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

4.85

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.38

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

MIN 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.304	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. CaratiniC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.286	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. GonzalezRF	.467	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezCF	.353	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. FedkoLF	.077	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Salas2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoustonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. WinokurSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. SpainRF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KendleOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. WinkelC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	5	2	0	1	6

Player

.235

.304

.143

.286

.286

.333

.125

.222

.467

.353

.077

.200

.250

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AbelSP	4.0	2	0	0	0	2	41
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. PrielippSP	1.2	4	3	3	1	2	41
L. WhitakerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
Team	8.0	7	3	3	1	7	111

Player

4.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

111

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. KjerstadLF	.318	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.227	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Alexander3B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.421	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Estrada2B	.071	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. AloySS	.667	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Smith2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. GeorgeOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. Noda1B	.077	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Liranzo3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	3	7	3	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PovichSP	3.2	1	1	1	1	1	53
G. WolframRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	18
K. AkinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
D. EnnsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	21
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
Z. BarnhartRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	5	2	2	1	6	118

Team

MIN

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs MIN.