Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL

BAL

7-6-2

ATL

10-2-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

6,305 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Shane BazBAL
5.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

ATL

.715

OPS

.718

.720

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.38

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 2 · ATL 2 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. BasalloC	.375	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Ramos3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. TrimbleLF	.267	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.417	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. HuffC	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
W. Vasquez3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BarreroSS	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FabianCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ArdoinC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Yeaman3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. IrishC	1.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezOF	.667	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. Lo ReSS	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	5	2	0	4	14

Player

.211

.333

.375

.250

.267

.417

.167

.167

.111

.000

.000

.286

.000

1.000

.667

1.000

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. De LeonP	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	29
C. MarshRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
C. WestonRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	4	43
B. BatemanSP	3.0	3	2	2	1	1	46
A. PhamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	10	136

Player

1.2

0.1

3.0

3.0

1.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.313	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.294	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.529	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
E. WhiteRF	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. GamelRF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Wisely2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Gil3B	.214	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BurgessC	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Groshans3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Verdung2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. HartmanOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CareyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. TornesOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. TavarezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	2.2	2	0	0	3	3	58
S. SchanamanP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
T. KinleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
D. FuentesRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	25
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
I. GallegosRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	23
Team	9.0	5	2	2	4	14	158

Team

BAL

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs BAL.