Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+4SEA

SEA

4-9-1

TEX

8-6

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

8,861 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium

Hits

Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.7high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high
Corey SeagerTEX
0.6± 0.7high
Elias DiazTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

TEX

.696

OPS

.718

▶

.712

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

4.07

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.95

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 5 · TEX 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	5
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.211	4	2	2	3	2	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.476	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
C. JoeRF	.263	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
P. Wisdom3B	.350	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. PeredaC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Taylor1B	.308	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. FarmeloOF	.263	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. RambuschOF	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ReetzC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SianiRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SundstromOF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Wi. Wilson3B	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Pagliarini3B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.467	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	11	5	3	3	9

Player

.211

.000

.476

.263

.350

.200

.100

.308

.263

.071

.200

.000

.273

.375

.167

.500

.467

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. AndersonSP	3.0	1	0	0	0	2	34
E. HancockSP	3.0	3	1	1	0	4	48
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	27
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
R. OrtizSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	13	144

Player

3.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. CanhaLF	.313	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.611	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. JohnsonC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. RodriguezSS	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SniderLF	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.136	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Q. ScottRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TorresRF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. HerreraC	.238	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. HardySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Chavez2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. JonesLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	1	7	1	1	2	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	3.2	5	2	2	0	4	61
A. Hoopii-TuionetoaRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	9
J. JunisRP	1.2	3	2	2	1	0	33
B. AndersonRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	4
J. SborzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
R. LobusP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19
E. LoomisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	11	5	5	3	9	155

Team

SEA

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SEA.