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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
CHC

CHC

6-8

0
3
SD

SD

7-7

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona
8,865 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

CHC

league avg

SD

SD

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.663

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.21

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CHC 0 · SD 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
SD102000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 66-33
62%Last 30 · 293-178
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Mar 6·Final/Seriestied 1-1
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. AndujarSD+26.8pp
  2. 2G. MarquezSD+23.0pp
  3. 3M. BallesterosCHC−19.2pp

CHC · top performer

CHC
R

Reginald Preciado

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

Game flowCHC ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning

MLB · Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF
.3043020001
D. CarlsonLF
.4213000002
M. BallesterosDH
.3643020001
C. McCormickLF
.2693010000
J. RojasSS
.2803000002
O. Miller2B
.3002010011
S. Kingery3B
.1252000000
B. Cowles3B
.2003000001
J. DeanCF
.1253000002
- P. ChaversRF
.3331000000
- O. AyersC
.0001000001
- C. OpitzC
.0000000010
- B. Kalmer1B
.0001000001
- K. Simas3B
.3331000000
- R. PreciadoSS
.3331010000
- J. Triantos2B
.2801000011
- C. OlivoLF
.0001000001
- D. AlcantaraOF
.0001000000
Team330700314

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BrownRP
2.23333348
J. WebbRP
1.10001016
C. SniderRP
1.0000018
E. RobertsRP
1.01000117
R. RolisonRP
1.00001219
C. BarnesRP
1.01000120
Team8.053358128

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MerrillCF
.2863000000
M. AndujarDH
.3811210010
J. Cronenworth2B
.3682110010
N. CastellanosRF
.3332011001
G. Sheets1B
.2001001020
R. LaureanoLF
.2863000001
T. France1B
.3814010001
L. CampusanoC
.1673010001
M. McCoy2B
.1673000001
- B. JohnsonRF
.2731000001
- N. SchnellRF
.2310000010
- S. TaylorLF
.3751000001
- E. SalasC
.1251000000
- P. ReyesOF
.2501000001
- R. Sanabria1B
.2671000000
- J. BowenRF
.3040000000
- C. RodríguezRF
.3570000000
- R. JacksonUN
.0001000000
- F. Acuna3B
.2500000000
Team28352058

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP
3.02000335
M. GonzalesSP
3.03001553
A. MorejonRP
1.01000317
J. EstradaRP
1.00001220
D. MorganRP
1.01001117
Team9.0700314142

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SD

Home

0

Runs

3

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

9

TB

6

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

14

K

8

20

LOB

18

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 24SDSD5@CHCCHC6
Mar 7CHCCHC0@SDSD3today

How it ended

SD beat CHC 3-0. M. Andujar led the way — 1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS.

Win probability

SD vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 56% WP

McCormick · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ballesteros out at second.

SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 73% WP

Sheets · walked, Andujar scored, Castellanos to second, Cronenworth to third.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 78% WP

Cronenworth · singled to center, Andujar to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
SD10200000—3

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · SD won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Castellanos 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
SD

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  2. T9

    D. Alcantara grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  4. T9

    Triantos to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  5. T9

    Triantos to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  8. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Derik Alcantara

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  10. T9

    Olivo struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

    +4pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  17. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Christian Olivo

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  18. T9

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  19. T9

    Triantos walked.

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

    −4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  22. T9

    Preciado to third on wild pitch by Morgan.

    ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  23. T9

    Preciado to third on wild pitch by Morgan.

    ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  27. T9

    David Morgan pitches to James Triantos

    · ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  28. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

  29. T9

    Preciado doubled to right.

    ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

    −2pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·SD 3

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Chicago Cubs, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Mize (DET): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Young (SEA): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Matthews (MIN): 7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Marsh (PHI): 2 H · 2 HR · 2 RBI against PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBASpurs: Re-signed F Julian Champagnie to a veteran extension (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed G Chaney Johnson to a two-way contract (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · WNBADream: Signed G Jaylyn Sherrod to a player development contract (Jun 29)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ NY, 6/30 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -2.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Mize (DET): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Young (SEA): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Matthews (MIN): 7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Marsh (PHI): 2 H · 2 HR · 2 RBI against PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBASpurs: Re-signed F Julian Champagnie to a veteran extension (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed G Chaney Johnson to a two-way contract (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · WNBADream: Signed G Jaylyn Sherrod to a player development contract (Jun 29)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ NY, 6/30 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -2.5

Player projections

SD vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Matthew BoydCHC
    5.8± 3.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.2± 2.8medium
  • Michael KingSD
    4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

  • Nico HoernerCHC
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Dansby SwansonCHC
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Dansby SwansonCHC
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Justin DeanCHC
    1.0± 2.3low
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Jordan WicksCHC
    3.7± 5.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.5± 3.0low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.2± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands