Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+4PHI

PHI

5-7-1

1410

PIT

9-4

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

5,593 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

PIT

.704

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

1.30

WHIP

1.31

1.30

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 14 · PIT 10 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	1	4	14
PIT	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	3	0	10

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RojasCF	.067	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. KempLF	.227	3	2	1	1	0	1	1
R. MarchanC	.250	3	2	2	4	0	1	1
B. De La CruzOF	.235	3	1	1	1	0	1	2
L. PegueroSS	.111	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. ReyesLF	.250	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.167	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. Escobar2B	.125	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. McIntoshC	.500	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
C. RickettsC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RinconSS	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. FerraraSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HerediaRF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. BritoSS	.667	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. CampbellCF	.154	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.250	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
P. LeonRF	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HettigerC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	14	10	12	1	7	12

Player

.067

.227

.250

.235

.111

.250

.167

.125

.500

.286

.250

.000

.200

.667

.154

.250

.235

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CabreraSP	2.1	2	1	1	1	3	50
S. TeranRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	12
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	3	3	3	2	1	28
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	22
N. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	19
A. WallingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Y. CuretSP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	25
B. BeckelRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. PulidoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
Team	9.0	10	10	10	7	12	181

Player

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.333	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.267	2	1	0	1	0	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.500	1	1	1	3	1	1	0
J. BartC	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
En. Valdez1B	.059	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookRF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.313	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. JebbLF	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. BergC	.286	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
E. Gourson2B	.333	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
O. AlfonzoC	.286	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
S. PolancoOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. De Los SantosSS	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Moss1B	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. TaylorCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. JarvisSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. De Los SantosSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. GonzalezOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		37	10	10	10	4	7	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	3.0	3	2	2	0	5	53
B. CainUN	0.1	1	5	5	3	0	27
J. LoeschornRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	1	33
I. MattsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
B. BidoisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
B. BurrowsRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	18
M. Darrell-HicksRP	1.0	2	4	3	1	0	22
Team	9.0	10	14	12	7	12	200

Team

PHI

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs PHI.