Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+3NYY

5-9

NYY

10-3

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

9,701 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.4± 2.7low
Will WarrenNYY
2.4± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYY

.730

OPS

.718

▶

.746

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.321

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.90

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.20

WHIP

1.31

1.19

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TB 0 · NYY 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WallsSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GillenOF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. ViladeRF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MeltonLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Williamson2B	.278	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.071	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Isaac1B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Delgado2B	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. BarriosSS	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Bush Jr.CF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. OvernOF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TooleOF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Horvath3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LevinsC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Pitre2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Simpson1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.059	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	18

Player

.250

.143

.269

.200

.278

.071

.222

.222

.158

.444

.250

.125

.286

.000

.125

.000

.333

.059

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoyleSP	3.0	4	2	2	2	6	68
I. SeymourRP	3.1	0	0	0	0	6	41
A. CookRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. RockRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	2	33
Team	8.0	6	3	3	4	14	151

Player

3.0

3.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.118	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.412	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. StantonDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Cabrera3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. SchuemannSS	.417	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. HenryC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CoronaCF	.300	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. OrnelasSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. LucianoOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. TorresOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. KentSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Hardman1B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. PalmaC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. TroyerRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	2	0	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	2.1	2	0	0	1	4	39
T. HillRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	4	23
B. HeadrickRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	4	20
Z. MessingerSP	2.1	1	0	0	0	3	30
D. WatsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	18	129

Team

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs TB.