New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+2MIA

NYM

5-5-1

MIA

6-6

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,083 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIA

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

4.10

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 0 · MIA 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. BengeRF	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. Clifford1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. BarnesC	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Arroyo2B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. SengerC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. CuevasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Roselli2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RudickLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Smith2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. VegaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lorusso3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. HernándezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	0	6	0	0	1	12

Player

.286

.294

.400

.000

.214

.364

.400

.231

.333

.167

.000

.000

.000

.250

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	3.0	1	1	1	1	1	33
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
B. HudsonRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	19
D. OrellanaSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	7
J. JacquesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
R. LambertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
Team	8.0	3	2	2	5	7	128

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.286	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. Norby1B	.211	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. Morel1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AcostaSS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
K. AldermanRF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. De Los Santos1B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. PintarCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Martorella1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. IgnoffoC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MatheusSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ShadeOF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MorissetteSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. TrimbleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JohnsonCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	2	3	2	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	39
J. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
M. PetersenRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	35
J. WhiteRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
W. KempnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	6	0	0	1	12	146

Team

NYM

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs NYM.