Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+6HOU

WSH

6-4-3

HOU

3-7-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,703 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

HOU

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.725

.318

OBP

.319

.315

5.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.49

4.71

Team ERA

4.17

4.74

1.39

WHIP

1.31

1.40

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

WSH 1 · HOU 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
HOU	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CrewsRF	.083	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.133	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. House3B	.438	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. WoodRF	.071	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. LileLF	.067	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ortiz1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. VaqueroRF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. AlcantaraSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Morales1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. PetryOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Martinez2B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersLF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Lipscomb3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Boissiere1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. LomavitaC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	2	1	1	4	7

Player

.083

.133

.438

.071

.333

.067

.214

.000

.111

.500

.200

.000

.000

.400

.167

.333

.000

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	4.0	1	1	0	0	6	51
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
J. FernandezRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	25
Z. PenrodRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. Montes de OcaRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	1	26
S. GastonSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	10
T. BaumDH	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	30
Team	8.0	7	7	6	6	9	169

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

169

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. LoperfidoLF	.118	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Unroe2B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. SpenceOF	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Nelson3B	.250	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.250	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. SalazarC	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.333	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
J. GarciaC	.111	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. FreyOF	.182	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
CJ Alexander1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WakefieldRF	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. SaccoSS	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RamirezSS	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.091	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	7	7	6	1	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	3.2	1	0	0	2	4	61
T. McLoughlinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SousaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
K. TengRP	2.0	1	1	1	2	1	36
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
A. WillinghamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	2	1	1	4	7	125

Team

WSH

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs WSH.