St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 6, 2026

FINAL+8STL

STL

8-4

102

BAL

6-6-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

6,510 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Shane BazBAL
5.1± 2.9medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.6± 2.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

BAL

.717

OPS

.718

.715

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 10 · BAL 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	0	2	10
BAL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChurchLF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
I. HerreraDH	.286	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.211	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. CrooksC	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.294	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
C. Prieto3B	.118	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.059	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. RivasSS	.357	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. CordobaLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SuarezRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PozoC	.462	2	2	2	2	0	0	0
C. DavisCF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.118	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jo. BáezRF	.333	1	2	1	2	1	1	0
Y. PenaCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HernandezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	13	8	2	5	4

Player

.250

.286

.200

.211

.333

.294

.118

.059

.357

.000

.000

.462

.286

.118

.333

1.000

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	4.0	4	1	1	0	4	60
M. PushardRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	24
M. RajcicRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	27
Team	9.0	12	2	2	1	9	144

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Alexander3B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.389	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. KjerstadLF	.316	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.438	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Estrada2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AloySS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. IrishC	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HandleyC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. HoneycuttCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.364	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. HightowerSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	2	12	2	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BassittSP	3.0	1	1	0	1	2	43
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
A. SuarezRP	2.2	9	7	7	1	2	51
T. NeighborsSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	13
J. HenriquezSP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	21
Team	9.0	13	10	9	5	4	140

Team

STL

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs STL.