Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

6-5-1

5-8

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

3,305 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Shane BazBAL
5.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

.715

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

4.38

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · TB 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	4
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. BasalloC	.357	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Ramos3B	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Noda1B	.077	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
We. Wilson3B	.417	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. RobertsonLF	.231	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
J. BarreroSS	.125	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
R. TrimbleLF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HodoCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FabianCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	5	3	2	5	13

Player

.250

.357

.286

.300

.294

.077

.417

.231

.125

.182

.000

.000

.000

.300

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. EflinSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	40
A. MagnoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. KowarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	21
A. NunezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
C. FosterRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	19
E. ParedesRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	21
E. TorresRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	2	28
G. OgandoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
C. TaveraRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	13
Team	9.0	10	3	3	5	9	172

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FraleyRF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GillenOF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. FortesC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.261	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
R. Delgado2B	.176	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. WilliamsSS	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. PiperC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. BarriosSS	.471	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
M. TooleOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. Bush Jr.CF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. SabolC	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. AybarOF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. PerezSS	.667	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. MateoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	3	10	3	0	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. PepiotSP	3.0	1	0	0	4	3	57
Y. GomezRP	2.0	2	2	1	0	4	34
A. WantzRP	2.0	2	2	2	1	2	33
L. GuerreroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
C. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	5	4	3	5	13	153

Team

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs BAL.