San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+21SD

6-7

276

SEA

3-9-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

7,123 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.696

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.312

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.05

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 27 · SEA 6 (by 21)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	12	5	1	2	1	3	2	1	27
SEA	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.353	3	3	3	2	1	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.333	4	2	3	2	1	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.333	4	1	2	2	0	0	2
G. Sheets1B	.214	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.316	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.350	3	3	2	2	1	1	0
S. Song2B	.250	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. France1B	.412	3	2	2	2	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.385	3	3	3	6	1	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.200	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.231	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. BowenRF	.304	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Solak1B	.368	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.409	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.286	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.200	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. OrnelasLF	.200	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
F. Acuna3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Dungan2B	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ReyesOF	.267	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.273	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
B. DurfeeC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		57	27	28	27	8	5	12

Player

.353

.333

.333

.214

.316

.350

.250

.412

.385

.200

.231

.304

.368

.409

.286

.200

.200

.250

.176

.286

.267

.273

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	3.0	2	2	2	1	4	47
J. SearsSP	3.0	2	2	2	3	3	58
T. McKenzieRP	1.2	4	1	1	3	2	48
J. YeagerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. TamarezRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	17
Team	9.0	9	6	6	7	11	173

Player

3.0

3.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

173

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.417	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
L. RaleyRF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Wisdom3B	.313	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.429	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
R. Bliss2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. PackardOF	.400	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. Emerson3B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rodden2B	.438	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. O'KeefeC	.200	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. RambuschOF	.077	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. RaposoC	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Taylor1B	.273	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. SundstromOF	.300	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. SanchezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. DavisLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Cali3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	6	9	6	4	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	1.1	6	6	5	1	2	39
T. ClevelandUN	0.1	4	5	5	1	1	26
S. RaethRP	0.1	3	1	1	0	0	12
A. HoppeRP	1.0	5	5	5	0	2	27
T. TaylorRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	11
C. LawrenceRP	2.0	6	3	3	0	4	41
B. CastanoRP	1.0	2	3	3	0	0	16
N. DavilaRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	22
R. VanScoterSP	1.0	0	1	1	2	2	24
Team	9.0	28	27	26	5	12	218

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs SD.