Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+4PHI

BOS

6-6

PHI

4-7-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

9,266 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.1± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

PHI

.698

OPS

.718

.704

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.41

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.15

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BOS 2 · PHI 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
PHI	0	3	0	1	1	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WardCF	.450	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ThaissC	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.077	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Capra3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. HickeyC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CastroCF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Ferguson2B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BleisRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. RodriguezCF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. Encarnacion3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WhiteSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Winnay3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. GasperC	.462	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
N. TaylorOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. CespedesSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	0	0	3	14

Player

.450

.077

.231

.077

.000

.125

.333

.286

.267

.000

.333

.000

1.000

.000

.462

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T.J. SikkemaSP	2.1	5	3	3	0	2	45
M. SansoneRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. WatsonRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	22
K. KellerRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	24
W. OldsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
J. WebbRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	29
P. LabriolaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	8.0	10	6	6	4	6	150

Player

2.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.417	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.700	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.273	3	2	0	1	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.211	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.143	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. LeonRF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HettigerC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CairoSS	.231	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RinconSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. RodriguezSS	.300	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. ReyesLF	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	10	6	1	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	5	38
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
C. ShugartRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	21
Z. PopRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	2	0	1	3	17
T. MayzaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	13
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
Team	9.0	5	2	0	3	14	125

Team

BOS

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs BOS.