Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+2MIA

HOU

2-7-3

MIA

5-6

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,391 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

MIA

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.716

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

HOU 0 · MIA 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. ColeLF	.091	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. DiazC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ferreras2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HuezoCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. JanekC	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.357	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. ThomasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Biggers2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	0	1	0	0	4	13

Player

.182

.000

.167

.091

.000

.100

.167

.111

.286

.000

.250

.100

.167

.091

.429

.357

.000

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ImaiSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	30
S. ArrighettiSP	3.0	1	1	1	3	2	55
S. OkertRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	16
C. RoaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	23
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	5	2	2	5	8	138

Player

2.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.267	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. ConineLF	.214	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Norby1B	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. RuizRF	.083	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. MackC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AcostaSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LewisOF	.182	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Berry1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. De Los Santos1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. EtzelLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BastidasSS	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JonesCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AldermanRF	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		27	2	5	2	0	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	4	43
R. SnellingSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	6	45
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	19
K. MilbrandtSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	1	0	0	3	13	132

Team

HOU

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs HOU.