Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+5ATH

ATH

4-7

1611

LAA

5-8

Tempe Diablo Stadium · Tempe, Arizona

5,856 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.0high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.2± 0.5high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.0± 2.1medium
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.9± 1.0high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.7± 1.2medium

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.2± 3.6low
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

LAA

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.716

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

4.97

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.58

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 16 · LAA 11 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	8	0	0	0	5	0	0	3	16
LAA	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	5	1	11

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.143	1	1	0	1	0	2	0
S. LangeliersC	.250	2	1	0	1	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.450	2	1	1	4	1	1	1
B. RookerDH	.316	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WynnsC	.385	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.250	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
A. Ibanez2B	.286	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.350	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
B. Harris3B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. ThomasRF	.000	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. MarloweOF	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ElliottLF	.250	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
J. Kuroda-GrauerSS	.417	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. LavastidaC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. ServenC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. White3B	.455	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Stefanic2B	.250	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. PerezCF	.235	1	2	1	2	1	1	0
Team		39	16	12	16	5	12	8

Player

.143

.250

.450

.316

.176

.385

.250

.286

.350

.182

.000

.278

.250

.417

.000

.333

.455

.250

.235

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. MoralesSP	3.2	4	2	2	3	4	65
B. BassoRP	1.1	4	2	2	0	0	26
J. ArnoldSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	33
G. HartliebRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	1	30
W. SueroRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	7
N. HernandezRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	16
Team	9.0	15	11	11	6	8	177

Player

3.2

1.1

2.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

177

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SolerDH	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. TroutCF	.333	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
Z. NetoSS	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.263	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.278	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Moore2B	.316	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
V. Grissom2B	.158	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. TaylorCF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. TeodosioLF	.353	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.188	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. RadaCF	.286	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
D. Guzman3B	.294	1	2	1	1	1	1	0
N. Kavadas1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. RiveroC	.429	2	1	2	3	0	0	0
K. Paris2B	.313	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. Mancini1B	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Madrigal3B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezCF	.429	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
Team		39	11	15	11	1	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ManoahSP	2.1	3	5	5	5	3	64
A. ZabalaRP	0.2	4	3	3	2	0	28
K. OrtRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
W. UrenaSP	2.2	2	4	4	2	3	55
K. YovanRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	7
J. SouthardRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
J. FerminRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	27
D. ClarkSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	12	16	16	12	8	208

Team

ATH

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs ATH.