Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+2MIL

MIL

5-7

108

COL

6-6

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

6,680 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Robert GasserMIL
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.8high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

COL

.732

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.325

5.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.64

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.53

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 10 · COL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	2	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	10
COL	2	0	1	2	1	0	1	1	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MitchellCF	.286	3	2	2	4	1	1	1
S. FrelickRF	.235	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.545	3	2	2	2	1	0	1
B. PerkinsCF	.333	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.267	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Wilken3B	.286	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
J. QueroC	.154	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.200	2	2	1	0	0	2	1
E. LeonardSS	.455	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BrownCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HurtubiseLF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jon Adams3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Adamczewski2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Baez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Burke1B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. RodríguezC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. MurraySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. DickinsonSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	10	12	10	2	5	10

Player

.286

.235

.545

.333

.267

.286

.154

.200

.455

.000

1.000

.167

.200

.000

.250

.500

.000

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	2.2	3	3	3	3	2	53
C. YohoRP	1.1	3	2	1	0	2	25
S. PeraltaRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	14
J. WaguespackRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
C. CrowSP	3.0	4	2	2	0	1	38
Team	9.0	12	8	6	4	6	143

Player

2.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

3.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.350	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. FreemanRF	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. BeckLF	.304	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.556	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. McCannC	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Ritter2B	.478	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
C. Stevens2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.294	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
C. CondonOF	.467	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. HillRF	.500	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. AvansLF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. MachinSS	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TorresSS	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Kent2B	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	12	5	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	2.2	6	4	4	2	2	65
R. MillerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
R. FeltnerSP	2.2	3	3	3	2	5	52
D. PalermoSP	0.1	3	3	3	0	0	18
C. PalmquistSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
P. MushinskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	12	10	10	5	10	179

Team

MIL

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs MIL.