Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

LAD

9-4

1314

CIN

6-4

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

7,869 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low

Hits

Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 1.2high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1± 1.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CIN

.787

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.310

5.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.25

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.12

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

LAD 13 · CIN 14 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	1	0	4	3	3	0	1	0	1	13
CIN	4	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CallLF	.444	2	3	2	1	0	2	0
A. Freeland2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.300	3	2	1	2	1	1	0
S. Espinal3B	.625	2	2	2	6	2	0	0
R. WardLF	.120	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Z. EhrhardOF	.346	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. MillerSS	.381	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
M. SianiCF	.071	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. AlfonzoC	.385	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Tibbs IIIRF	.292	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Senzel3B	.313	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Z. HopeCF	.316	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Wagner3B	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DavalanOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. De PaulaRF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. McLainSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. GeorgeCF	.071	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. ZavalaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	13	13	13	5	8	6

Player

.444

.167

.300

.625

.120

.346

.381

.071

.385

.292

.313

.316

.429

.000

.400

.250

.071

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IrvinRP	3.0	6	6	6	1	1	43
P. GervaseRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	30
N. NastriniSP	1.0	0	1	1	2	0	14
C. DayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
K. HurtRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
C. HobbsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
J. WeemsRP	0.0	2	4	4	2	0	20
Team	8.0	13	14	14	6	5	154

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

Team

8.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.647	3	3	3	2	1	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.444	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
N. LoweDH	.286	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
S. SteerLF	.143	1	2	0	0	0	2	0
W. BensonRF	.267	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. BledayLF	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Encarnacion-Strand1B	.333	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. DunnCF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. BalcazarSS	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. DunoC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
P.J. HigginsC	.125	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
H. RodriguezLF	.154	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.500	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
T. LewisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BanfieldC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	14	13	13	5	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FrancoRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	49
N. PetersonRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	9
E. PaganRP	1.0	4	4	4	0	0	17
T. SantillanRP	0.2	1	3	3	3	0	30
S. MillerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	2	3	3	2	0	29
H. DannerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	26
J. AguiarSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	4	45
Team	9.0	13	13	13	8	6	219

Team

LAD

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs LAD.