Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+9CLE

CLE

6-8

123

CHW

7-7

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

3,933 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 2.6high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.4± 2.4medium
Erick FeddeCHW
2.3± 2.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

CHW

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.82

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.22

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 12 · CHW 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	4	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	1	12
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.438	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.300	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
G. ValeraLF	.316	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.200	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. JonesRF	.130	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.214	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Brito2B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.214	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Genao3B	.294	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. ChourioCF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.273	1	1	1	3	1	1	0
A. RosarioRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. HuffC	.400	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
W. AntunezRF	.333	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. Kieboom3B	.143	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. MooneySS	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. BarstadC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Nelson1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		42	12	16	12	3	1	9

Player

.438

.300

.316

.200

.130

.214

.188

.214

.294

.400

.273

.000

.400

.333

.143

.333

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	4.0	1	0	0	0	4	46
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
T. HerrinRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	3	24
K. AllardRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	1	34
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	11	131

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AcunaCF	.455	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.409	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.455	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. MurrayLF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BaldwinLF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Camilletti2B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. BurrowesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Dru BakerCF	.278	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Da. Baker2B	.750	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. SprinkleSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Galanie1B	.100	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. Weber2B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. ConnorOF	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		32	3	6	2	0	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	3.0	5	4	4	0	3	40
E. FeddeSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	1	35
J. PaezSP	1.1	6	6	6	1	2	44
J. PalischRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	7
H. SmithSP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	16	12	11	1	9	145

Team

CLE

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs CLE.