Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+7CHC

ARI

7-5

CHC

6-7

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

12,824 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CHC

.694

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

4.33

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.21

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

ARI 1 · CHC 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
CHC	2	0	2	1	2	0	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LawlarLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.150	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.300	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. TawaLF	.316	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.350	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.227	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Torin2B	.667	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Counsell2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DixSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. O'NeillC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FrancoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Owusu-AsieduCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodriguezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	1	3	10

Player

.333

.222

.150

.300

.316

.350

.227

.273

.667

.000

.000

.500

.400

.000

.000

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	2.2	3	2	2	0	3	42
S. GiestingSP	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	18
K. GinkelRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	13
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	18
D. JamesonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
S. DubinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
Ju. FernandezRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	0	28
A. PerezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	8.0	12	8	8	4	9	151

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Hoerner2B	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.111	2	1	0	1	0	1	1
D. SwansonSS	.500	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.400	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
C. KellyC	.267	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
M. ShawRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.154	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
P. Ramirez2B	.353	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Triantos2B	.292	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. KepleyOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.143	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. Kingery3B	.136	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ArmasC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Halbach3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. ChaversRF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Cowles3B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	12	8	2	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	3.2	4	1	1	0	6	57
T. BeedeRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
H. MilnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
L. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21
C. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	6	1	1	3	10	144

Team

ARI

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs ARI.