Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+4ATL

TOR

2-8-2

ATL

9-2-1

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

4,790 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

ATL

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.720

.310

OBP

.319

.311

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

TOR 5 · ATL 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	5
ATL	0	0	1	2	0	3	3	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.222	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.077	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. SanchezRF	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. HeinemanC	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. ClaseLF	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.154	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. Keys3B	.222	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Lantigua2B	.615	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.467	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Coffey3B	.091	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
Y. PinangoLF	.071	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. BrooksC	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mendoza3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. McAdoo2B	.353	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	5	12	5	0	6	13

Player

.200

.222

.077

.211

.286

.400

.250

.154

.222

.615

.467

.091

.071

.400

.133

.500

.111

.353

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	2.1	3	1	1	1	2	46
J. ColemanP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
L. VarlandRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	18
M. PlassmeyerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	16
C.J. Van EykSP	0.2	3	3	3	3	0	31
N. GarkowP	1.0	2	3	3	2	1	30
D. HarrisonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	14	9	9	7	7	164

Player

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.1

Team

8.0

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.308	3	1	3	1	0	1	0
D. BaldwinC	.308	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Riley3B	.286	1	0	1	1	0	2	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.571	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.357	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.444	3	2	1	2	1	1	0
B. Wisely2B	.231	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Gil3B	.231	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BrookmanC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. EnglishOF	.250	1	0	1	3	0	0	0
K. Ogans3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. SchunkSS	.231	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	9	14	9	1	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	3.0	5	1	1	1	2	50
S. StriderSP	2.1	2	2	2	1	4	48
B. EnlowSP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
J. KroegerRP	0.2	3	2	2	2	2	28
A. PilarRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
L. VargasSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	26
Team	9.0	12	5	5	6	13	178

Team

TOR

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs TOR.