Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 4, 2026

FINAL+5SF

SEA

3-8-1

9-2

Scottsdale Stadium · Scottsdale, Arizona

8,961 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.8high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 1.1high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Heliot RamosSF
2.0± 1.9high
Luis ArraezSF
2.0± 1.5high
Rafael DeversSF
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.5± 0.8high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.4± 3.7low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

.696

OPS

.718

▶

.725

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

4.06

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.32

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.36

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SEA 4 · SF 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	4
SF	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	1	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.133	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.000	2	0	0	2	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.444	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.188	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. Rivas3B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. KniznerC	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.400	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. MontesRF	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. FarmeloOF	.313	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
A. St. Laurent3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ReetzC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RambuschOF	.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PackardOF	.571	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Rodden2B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PeredaC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Suisbel1B	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. KnightOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. SundstromOF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	6	4	0	5	9

Player

.133

.000

.444

.188

.273

.200

.400

.063

.313

.500

.250

.091

.571

.400

.125

.250

.000

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CriswellRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	1	41
C. VargasRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	0	24
R. LumpkinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. FerrerRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	0	24
J. KingsburyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. SimpsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Y. ZuluetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	25
R. LoutosRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	18
Team	8.0	9	9	8	3	8	156

Player

3.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. AdamesSS	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.462	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BrennanLF	.429	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.412	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.273	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
J. Holton1B	.412	2	1	1	4	1	0	0
E. HaaseC	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Koss2B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.158	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. Harber3B	.308	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. EncarnacionRF	.190	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavidsonLF	.222	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. OlivaCF	.385	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
B. EldridgeDH	.263	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodríguezC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Furman2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	9	9	9	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RaySP	2.2	2	1	1	1	2	50
J. ChoateSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SeymourRP	2.2	3	3	2	1	2	49
K. WinnRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	14
M. FulmerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	13
N. ZwackRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	27
Team	9.0	6	4	3	5	9	155

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs SEA.