New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 4, 2026

FINAL+4NYY

NYY

9-2

BOS

6-5

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,545 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.8high
Amed RosarioNYY
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.4± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BOS

.746

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.69

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · BOS 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	4
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.333	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
B. Rice1B	.400	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. DeJong3B	.214	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. JonesRF	.308	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. LucianoOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrnelasSS	.182	2	0	0	1	0	0	2
P. HenryC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. EllisCF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Martin-GrudzielanekSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. PalmaC	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CoronaCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AvinaLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. KentSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CastilloRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MoralesLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	7	4	2	1	13

Player

.333

.400

.278

.214

.308

.000

.182

.250

.143

B. Martin-GrudzielanekSS

.000

.222

.222

.222

.250

.333

.200

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilSP	3.0	2	0	0	2	6	56
J. BirdRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	16
Y. De los SantosRP	1.1	1	0	0	2	1	22
B. HannerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	27
C. ColemanRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	21
K. CastroRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	6	0	0	6	11	157

Player

3.0

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.2

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Campbell2B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. StorySS	.353	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Mayer2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Durbin3B	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.308	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.417	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.333	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
T. McDonoughOF	.308	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. AzocarCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RosierRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Sogard3B	.087	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. RoseOF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. YutenRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DelayC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.462	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. HickeyC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. TurnerOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	0	6	0	0	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	2.2	3	3	3	0	3	53
M. CarlsonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	4
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	14
P. TolleSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	7	44
N. SongSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	1	13	146

Team

NYY

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs NYY.