Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 4, 2026

FINAL+2HOU

HOU

2-6-3

BAL

5-5-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

5,122 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

BAL

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.715

.315

OBP

.319

.318

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.38

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · BAL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LoperfidoLF	.071	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MatthewsCF	.294	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
P. SullivanCF	.063	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Winkler2B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. SpenceOF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. FreyOF	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
CJ Alexander1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Unroe2B	.357	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. SalazarC	.182	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. WhitakerRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. WakefieldRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PowellSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. GuillemetteC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	4	2	1	3	15

Player

.071

.294

.063

.273

.111

.200

.000

.357

.182

.000

.400

.286

.000

.100

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. GordonSP	2.1	2	0	0	2	1	50
A. BlubaughRP	2.2	2	0	0	0	0	34
M. UllolaSP	2.2	3	2	2	1	2	44
A. SantaRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	8	2	2	3	4	142

Player

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.1

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CowserCF	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.235	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.278	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Alexander3B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. KjerstadLF	.353	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Estrada2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.556	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. HoneycuttCF	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ArdoinC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Liranzo3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. O'FerrallSS	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Noda1B	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	8	2	2	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	3.0	2	3	3	2	5	49
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
T. WellsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	24
K. AkinRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	15
D. EnnsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	4	4	4	3	15	129

Team

HOU

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs HOU.