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FINAL+2ARI
ARI
7-4
31
ATH
3-7
Hohokam Stadium · Mesa, Arizona
5,086 attended
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.6%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
ATH
.694
OPS
.718
▶.736
.308
OBP
.319
▶.327
4.23
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.60
4.33
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.97
1.30
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.44
7.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ARI wins
ARI 3 · ATH 1 (by 2)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
