Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 3, 2026

FINAL+2TB

PHI

3-7-1

4-7

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

3,587 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.1± 2.5low

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.1± 2.1medium
Alan RangelPHI
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.704

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.52

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

PHI 1 · TB 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
TB	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CrawfordCF	.316	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.154	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. ReyesLF	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RinconSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Escobar2B	.143	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezSS	.300	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. Moore2B	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeMartiniSS	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. CampbellCF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RickettsC	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. LeonRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. BritoSS	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	8	1	0	2	8

Player

.316

.125

.200

.154

.250

.167

.214

.143

.300

.667

.200

.182

.167

.000

.400

.286

.667

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RangelRP	1.2	1	2	1	2	0	43
J. DallasP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	19
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
S. JohnsonRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
N. HoffmanRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	20
A. WallingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	23
Team	8.0	6	3	1	3	6	140

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WallsSS	.400	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. DiazDH	.400	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.300	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. ViladeRF	.211	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. BarriosSS	.385	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Morgan1B	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. PiperC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. HujsakOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GillenOF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DiazCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. KeeganC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PerezSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	1	0	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. McClanahanSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	23
C. SoleskyRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	35
B. BakerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	17
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	24
K. KellyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
J. RockRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
A. CookRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	8	1	1	2	8	138

Team

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs PHI.