Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 3, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

LAD

9-3

CLE

5-8

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,735 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.2high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 1.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.8medium
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

CLE

.787

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.312

5.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.77

1.12

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	5
CLE	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. RojasSS	.375	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.389	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. PagesCF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
N. Senzel3B	.286	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
Z. EhrhardOF	.348	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
R. WardLF	.136	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. MillerSS	.412	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AlfonzoC	.300	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Tibbs IIIRF	.304	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. HopeCF	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. SianiCF	.091	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. De PaulaRF	.389	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Wagner3B	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Nevin3B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. Fernandez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ZavalaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. McLainSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	7	5	1	6	10

Player

.375

.389

.333

.200

.286

.348

.136

.412

.300

.304

.294

.091

.389

.600

.200

.000

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SasakiSP	2.0	2	4	4	3	2	45
C. CrowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	25
Ri. RyanSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	28
T. ScottRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
W. KleinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
A. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
R. KoppRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	4	4	4	7	13	155

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

155

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.214	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.294	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. Manzardo1B	.111	3	1	1	4	1	0	1
D. FryRF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. ValeraLF	.313	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. JonesRF	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Brito2B	.231	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
P. HalpinCF	.417	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. AntunezRF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Genao3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Kieboom3B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Velazquez1B	.455	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. NunezC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HuffC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. CesariniOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TolentinoSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. MitchellOF	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	4	4	1	7	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	3.0	2	3	3	2	2	58
T. BurnsSP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	21
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	23
P. PalletteRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	20
J. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	7	5	5	6	10	167

Team

LAD

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs LAD.