San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 3, 2026

FINAL+1SD

5-7

CHW

7-6

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

3,587 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.82

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.22

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 4 · CHW 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	4
CHW	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.294	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. CastellanosRF	.250	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Miranda3B	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Dungan2B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Solak1B	.375	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. OrnelasLF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. RodríguezRF	.357	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
P. ReyesOF	.182	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
E. SalasC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Sanabria1B	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
F. Acuna3B	.308	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	1	8	7

Player

.300

.214

.294

.250

.278

.133

.400

.188

.375

.125

.357

.182

.143

.400

.167

.308

.222

.308

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. PivettaSP	3.0	6	2	2	1	1	43
K. HartRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	31
A. MorejonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	17
J. EstradaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
F. PenaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	9	3	3	5	5	131

Player

3.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.222	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.450	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
E. QueroC	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. HaysLF	.263	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.294	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. BaldwinLF	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.278	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
Dru BakerCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. Gonzalez1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.462	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Perez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TurnerC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Da. Baker2B	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HoganCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Galanie1B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BurkeCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	9	3	1	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. NewcombRP	3.0	5	2	2	1	1	54
C. MurphyRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	4	39
W. GonzálezRP	0.1	1	1	1	3	1	21
Jar. KelleySP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15
A. AlbertoRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	19
T. DavisRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	26
Team	9.0	8	4	4	8	7	174

Team

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs SD.