Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

6-4

TOR

2-7-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

5,943 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

TOR

.698

OPS

.718

.699

.312

OBP

.319

.310

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

4.06

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.12

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · TOR 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	0	7
TOR	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WardCF	.389	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ThaissC	.200	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.500	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
V. Capra3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. CastroCF	.375	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
T. McDonoughOF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Ferguson2B	.364	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
F. AriasSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. HickeyC	.167	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. DelayC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalesCF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. CespedesSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. TaylorOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. AlcantaraSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Encarnacion3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WhiteSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. AzocarCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	7	12	7	3	2	13

Player

.389

.091

.200

.500

.000

.375

.250

.364

.000

.167

.250

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OviedoSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	31
K. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
R. WatsonRP	0.2	1	4	4	2	0	27
P. HalliganRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	8
S. MartinezRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	27
J. Wu-YellandSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	18
M. SansoneRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
Team	9.0	8	6	6	4	5	144

Player

3.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. LukesRF	.077	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.083	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.133	3	1	1	4	1	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.188	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. HeinemanC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.462	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.143	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. Goodwin2B	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.412	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. MichelettiRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Coffey3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.375	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.556	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. ParkerC	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaseyOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	8	6	2	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PonceSP	2.0	4	1	1	0	2	32
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	18
S. MilesRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	3	35
D. HarrisonRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	3	22
Team	9.0	12	7	7	2	13	137

Team

BOS

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs BOS.