Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+1STL

MIA

4-6

STL

6-4

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,899 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

STL

.716

OPS

.718

.717

.324

OBP

.319

.324

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

3.98

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIA 2 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RuizRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. De Los Santos1B	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. LewisOF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Berry1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AldermanRF	.200	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
A. PintarCF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BastidasSS	.125	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. Jasso1B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. JonesCF	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HernándezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. O'DonnellCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Arroyo1B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Ab. Ramirez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ShadeOF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Miller2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JaworskySS	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	6	2	1	1	5

Player

.000

.250

.364

.200

.000

.200

.300

.125

.222

.286

.286

.000

.333

.250

.000

.500

.000

.667

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MazurSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	26
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
J. RalstonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	17
W. KempnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
J. WhiteRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	31
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
N. BelgraveRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	22
Team	8.2	5	3	3	4	6	147

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. FerminLF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Jo. BáezRF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Moore2B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Prieto3B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. ChoRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.385	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Y. PozoC	.364	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. LinarezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AnticoCF	.143	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. HoneymanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LedbetterCF	.600	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		28	3	5	3	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	3.0	3	1	1	0	2	38
M. PushardRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
B. ZimmermannRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	26
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
S. BlewettRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	6	2	2	1	5	126

Team

MIA

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIA.