Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL

WSH

5-3-3

HOU

1-6-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,302 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

HOU

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.725

.318

OBP

.319

.315

5.26

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.49

4.71

Team ERA

4.17

4.74

1.39

WHIP

1.31

1.40

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · HOU 3 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. AbramsSS	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WoodRF	.083	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.500	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. RuizC	.286	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. TenaDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.286	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KingSS	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Lipscomb3B	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. GlasserLF	.100	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. AlcantaraSS	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LomavitaC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Wallace3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Morales1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. PinckneyLF	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		33	3	6	3	1	3	10

Player

.250

.154

.083

.500

.000

.286

.000

.286

.000

.444

.364

.100

.222

.200

.143

.000

.000

.083

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GraySP	1.2	2	1	1	0	3	39
S. GastonSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
A. AlvarezRP	3.0	1	0	0	3	3	54
G. McGarrySP	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	32
M. BaldoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FernandezRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	21
A. GranilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	5	3	3	6	11	181

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

3.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. CorreaSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. SpenceOF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Unroe2B	.364	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SalazarC	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. WakefieldRF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. StrahmRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. MatthewsCF	.308	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
E. FreyOF	.143	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Ferreras2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	5	3	0	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	2.2	1	1	1	2	3	43
S. OkertRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	8
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	15
B. SousaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	21
J.P. FranceSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	29
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
H. LeachRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	10	142

Team

WSH

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs WSH.