Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+3ATL

ATL

8-2-1

DET

2-6-3

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

6,091 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

DET

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.709

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.78

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · DET 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	5
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Gil3B	.167	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. SchunkSS	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.083	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. EnglishOF	.200	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.214	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
B. HicklenCF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Wisely2B	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.286	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.071	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	1.000	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
C. BurgessC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Verdung2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. ClohisyCF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WorkingerLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WaddellSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. LodiseSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	9	4	1	1	8

Player

.167

.231

.083

.200

.214

.273

.273

.286

.071

1.000

.000

.000

.375

.250

.333

.333

.125

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	3.0	3	0	0	0	1	--
J. WentzRP	3.0	0	0	0	2	3	--
O. MurphySP	2.0	1	1	1	1	3	--
B. AbeytaSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
Team	9.0	5	2	2	4	7	0

Player

3.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.364	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.417	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. CarpenterRF	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.385	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. StrongCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. NidoC	.286	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
R. CamposOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. CallahanLF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. GrahamSS	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Jenkins1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RuckerSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Anderson2B	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		29	2	5	2	2	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
C. MizeSP	3.0	3	3	1	0	2	--
B. BrieskeRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	--
M. RodriguezRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
D. SommersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
R. VanascoRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
Team	9.0	9	5	3	1	8	0

Team

ATL

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs ATL.