Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+8CIN

CHC

4-7

917

CIN

5-4

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

4,626 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 2.8medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

CIN

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.25

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHC 9 · CIN 17 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	9
CIN	2	4	6	0	3	1	1	0	17

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF	.294	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.143	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. BallesterosDH	.400	2	1	2	2	0	1	0
D. CarlsonLF	.538	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. RojasSS	.316	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. Miller2B	.313	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
P. Ramirez2B	.357	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.111	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. SnellLF	.250	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. CepedaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. OpitzC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. KepleyOF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BatemanCF	.455	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. Ortiz3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Bowser3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. OlivoLF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. ArmasC	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	9	12	8	1	5	12

Player

.294

.143

.400

.538

.250

.316

.313

.357

.111

.250

.000

.000

.333

.455

.167

.200

.000

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	2.1	5	6	6	2	2	53
R. RolisonRP	0.0	4	6	6	2	0	27
G. KlobositsRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
H. MilnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
C. SniderRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	28
R. JensenSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	7
C. SchultzRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	0	33
T. BeedeRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	18
Team	8.0	14	17	17	8	4	190

Player

2.1

0.0

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

190

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.286	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
M. McLain2B	.571	2	3	2	6	2	2	0
E. De La CruzSS	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.429	3	2	2	4	1	1	0
S. SteerLF	.154	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.235	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.375	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Hayes3B	.300	2	3	2	3	0	1	0
B. DunnCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. BalcazarSS	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.100	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
H. RodriguezLF	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. BledayLF	.417	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SasakiCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LoweDH	.182	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. Urbaez2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.125	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	17	14	17	6	8	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	2.0	7	5	5	2	1	46
N. SandoSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19
B. WilliamsonSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	34
T. AntoneRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
S. MollRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Y. MarteRP	1.0	2	3	3	2	3	29
T. KunclSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	12	9	9	5	12	171

Team

CHC

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CHC.