San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+1SF

8-2

CHW

7-5

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

3,134 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.8high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Heliot RamosSF
2.0± 1.9high
Luis ArraezSF
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.4± 3.7low
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.725

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.82

4.32

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.22

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.32

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · CHW 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	1	1	6
CHW	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RodríguezC	.182	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
P. Harber3B	.364	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. Koss2B	.462	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.533	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. MatosRF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.333	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. HaaseC	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. EncarnacionRF	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Kennedy1B	.167	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. CoxCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Furman2B	.300	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavidsonLF	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. McCrayCF	.300	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Holton1B	.400	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. PorterC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Fitzgerald2B	.118	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	6	11	6	2	2	9

Player

.182

.364

.462

.533

.375

.333

.231

.158

.167

.000

.300

.500

.250

.300

.400

.000

.118

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RouppSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25
C. WhisenhuntSP	1.2	5	4	4	1	2	46
J. SanchezSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
S. BivensRP	1.2	3	1	1	2	1	35
N. MargeviciusSP	2.1	3	0	0	0	0	28
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	11	5	5	3	6	149

Player

2.0

1.2

0.1

1.2

2.1

1.0

Team

9.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.500	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.412	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.267	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. Sosa2B	.294	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. MurrayLF	.235	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. KelenicRF	.176	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. LeeC	.286	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
O. Dunn3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.545	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dru BakerCF	.267	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. LodiseSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Weber2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HarrisLF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TurnerC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	11	5	1	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	3.0	4	3	3	2	2	51
B. EisertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
G. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
J. CannonSP	3.0	4	2	2	0	3	50
Z. FranklinRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	13
Team	9.0	11	6	6	2	9	138

Team

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs SF.