Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+8ATH

CIN

4-4

412

ATH

2-6

Hohokam Stadium · Mesa, Arizona

5,215 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Gage JumpATH
5.7± 2.5low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.7medium

Hits

Alika WilliamsATH
1.1± 1.0high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.5± 1.6high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.5± 1.3high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Jonah HeimATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low
Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

ATH

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.327

4.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.60

4.59

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.97

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.44

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

CIN 4 · ATH 12 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4
ATH	2	0	4	1	0	0	0	5	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BensonRF	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.455	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. LoweDH	.200	3	1	1	3	1	0	2
T. StephensonC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. MyersCF	.455	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand1B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Hampson2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. RodriguezLF	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P.J. HigginsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TrautweinC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Collier3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Chavis2B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AllenCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. BalcazarSS	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	5	4	2	5	6

Player

.200

.143

.455

.200

.143

.455

C. Encarnacion-Strand1B

.167

.222

.000

.500

.100

.222

.000

.250

.143

.273

.000

.429

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	2.2	3	4	4	1	2	--
H. ParksSP	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	--
E. PaganRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
T. SantillanRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
L. MeyRP	0.1	2	4	4	2	1	--
Z. MaxwellRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	--
Team	8.0	11	12	12	5	12	0

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.231	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.067	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. LangeliersC	.333	2	2	2	3	1	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. WynnsC	.300	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. BolteCF	.286	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. MarloweOF	.308	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. PerezCF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Harris3B	.250	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Meneses1B	.400	2	1	1	4	1	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. WallachC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. White3B	.556	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. LaskoCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Kuroda-GrauerSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ElliottLF	.222	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. TurleyLF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	12	11	12	4	5	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	3.0	1	0	0	2	2	--
G. JumpSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
N. AndersonRP	1.0	1	3	3	2	1	--
G. HartliebRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
J. KuhnelRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
B. KriskeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	5	4	4	5	6	0

Team

CIN

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs CIN.