Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+5PIT

PIT

8-2

STL

5-4

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,754 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Brandon LowePIT
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

STL

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.324

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

4.17

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · STL 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6
STL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.286	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.214	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.300	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
N. Yorke3B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. BartC	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. GarciaRF	.538	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
D. FletcherRF	.143	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. Wendzel3B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. JarvisSS	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Gourson2B	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. GonzalezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Moss1B	.750	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. BergC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. JebbLF	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. SanfordSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PolancoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SanchezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	6	8	6	2	7	10

Player

.286

.214

.300

.267

.091

.167

.538

.143

.182

.333

.375

.000

.750

.167

.222

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BarcoRP	3.0	0	0	0	2	3	44
A. KellySP	3.0	1	1	0	1	2	37
K. CurtisSP	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	31
B. NeeckRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	25
Team	9.0	1	1	0	5	12	137

Player

3.0

3.0

1.2

1.1

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. HerreraDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. FerminLF	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Y. PozoC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. DavisCF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. YerzyC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. CamposC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. AnticoCF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GazdarSS	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MadrisOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Mendlinger3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PeeteOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Moore2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		27	1	1	0	0	5	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	2.2	4	4	4	3	1	54
I. BedellSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16
B. MautzRP	2.1	1	1	1	3	3	51
E. NunezRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	16
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
H. RinconRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	8	6	6	7	10	169

Team

PIT

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs PIT.