Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+5TEX

TEX

6-5

SEA

3-6-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,730 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Corey SeagerTEX
0.6± 0.7high
Elias DiazTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

SEA

.712

OPS

◀

.718

.696

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

4.05

3.95

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 9 · SEA 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	9
SEA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. OsunaLF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.308	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.600	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. CanhaLF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.143	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
C. CauleySS	.364	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. ZavalaLF	.500	3	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.267	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
W. MacIverC	.143	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. VelazquezSS	.118	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
R. MartinSS	.389	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. MartinezOF	.273	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. JohnsonC	.167	1	0	0	1	0	1	1
J. Taylor3B	.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. SniderLF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	9	14	9	2	3	15

Player

.200

.286

.143

.308

.200

.600

.286

.143

.364

.500

.267

.143

.118

.389

.273

.167

.333

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LatzRP	3.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
T. AlexanderRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
R. LobusP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
R. AhlstromRP	0.1	1	2	2	3	0	--
A. AndersonRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	--
Team	9.0	6	4	4	5	6	0

Player

3.0

2.0

2.0

0.1

1.2

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. RoblesRF	.143	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.100	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.538	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. JoeRF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Emerson3B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. MontesRF	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.231	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. RambuschOF	.091	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. O'KeefeC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. PackardOF	.600	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. Taylor1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.462	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. RaposoC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. CelestenSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. SundstromOF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	4	6	4	1	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilbertSP	2.2	2	1	1	0	3	--
N. DavilaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. SloanSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. MosserRP	1.1	7	5	5	0	2	--
J. KingsburyRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	--
B. CastanoRP	0.2	0	1	1	3	1	--
R. VanScoterSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. TaylorRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
A. HoppeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	14	9	9	3	15	0

Team

TEX

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs TEX.