San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+8SF

4-6

7-2

Scottsdale Stadium · Scottsdale, Arizona

9,302 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low
Tyler MahleSF
4.9± 2.3low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.8high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 1.1high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ty FranceSD
2.0± 3.4high
Heliot RamosSF
2.0± 1.9high
Luis ArraezSF
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Tyler MahleSF
3.4± 3.7low
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.663

OPS

.718

▶

.725

.298

OBP

.319

▶

.308

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.06

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.32

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.36

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SD 1 · SF 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
SF	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.313	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. LaureanoLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. France1B	.357	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Miranda3B	.412	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.462	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. OrnelasLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.357	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Sanabria1B	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. SalasC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	1	8

Player

.313

.267

.333

.357

.167

.167

.412

.222

.250

.462

.200

.143

.357

.222

.400

.167

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP	2.0	4	3	3	0	2	--
G. HawkinsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
M. GonzalesSP	3.0	5	2	2	0	1	--
E. RoutzahnRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	--
J. YeagerRP	0.2	4	3	3	1	0	--
R. OchRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	14	9	9	2	5	0

Player

2.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. AdamesSS	.133	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. EldridgeDH	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SchmittLF	.231	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.417	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.455	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.222	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. OlivaCF	.417	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Fitzgerald2B	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.176	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.455	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
J. Holton1B	.385	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Kennedy1B	.111	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.417	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. BasabeSS	.600	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.538	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.429	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. BrennanLF	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
N. Furman2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	9	14	9	0	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	3.0	2	1	1	0	3	--
J. BrubakerRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
T. BeckRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
W. RamosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
T. VrielingSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	8	0

Team

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs SD.