New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

8-2

PHI

3-6-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,279 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.4± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

PHI

.746

OPS

◀

.718

.704

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.90

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.41

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.15

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · PHI 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	5
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.375	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BrownLF	.182	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	.444	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. EllisCF	.182	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. GabrielsonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. HenryC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.250	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. PalmaC	.250	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
Y. FernandezRF	.222	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	5	9	5	0	2	7

Player

.083

.333

.333

.167

.133

.375

.250

.182

.444

.182

.273

.000

.333

.250

.250

.125

.250

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	3.2	1	0	0	0	3	--
C. WinquestRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	--
A. ChivilliRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
B. HessSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Y. De los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
M. AriasSP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	--
Team	9.0	5	3	3	1	9	0

Player

3.2

0.2

0.2

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.625	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. De La CruzOF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RojasCF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.182	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. RinconSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.308	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. SaltibanSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CampbellCF	.200	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.111	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HettigerC	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	5	3	1	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
T. BanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. BowlanRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	--
K. BackhusRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Z. PopRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	0	--
D. PulidoRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
C. ShugartRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	9	5	5	2	7	0

Team

NYY

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs NYY.