Houston Astros vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+1NYM

HOU

1-6-2

NYM

5-3-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

5,766 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Cam SmithHOU
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

NYM

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.673

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.299

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.10

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

HOU 3 · NYM 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
NYM	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. Paredes3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. ColeLF	.000	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
Y. DiazC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.100	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Winkler2B	.375	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
P. SullivanCF	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Unroe2B	.364	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Biggers2B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. ThomasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ferreras2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BushC	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. HuezoCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. JanekC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. GuillemetteC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. StrahmRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	3	5	2	0	7	13

Player

.200

.250

.000

.125

.100

.375

.077

.364

.333

.200

.000

.000

.143

.200

.500

.333

.000

.000

.000

.125

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AlexanderRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
K. TengRP	1.2	1	1	1	2	1	--
A. SantaRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	1	--
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
C. RoaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. MaldonadoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
A. WillinghamRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	3	--
A. Santos IIRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.2	6	4	4	7	10	0

Player

2.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.1

Team

8.2

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BengeRF	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TauchmanRF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.273	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo2B	.300	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. BrujanSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. PacheOF	.727	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. CluffSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Henriquez3B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. SengerC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A.J. EwingCF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Reimer3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Rojas3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BarnesC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BayRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. SueroC	.200	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
Team		32	4	6	4	2	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HolmesSP	4.0	3	1	1	1	4	--
J. WenningerSP	1.2	1	2	2	5	2	--
B. ConleyRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	--
A. SeverinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
M. TurnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	5	3	3	7	13	0

Team

HOU

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

NYM vs HOU.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers