Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL

ATL

6-2-1

MIN

2-7-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

5,394 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

MIN

.720

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.85

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 2 · MIN 2 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MateoSS	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. WilliamsSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. EnglishOF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CamargoC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. HicklenCF	.250	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. SchunkSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. AzocarRF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gil3B	.286	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
A. LodiseSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JonesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. CareyOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BurgessC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WorkingerLF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. MillerSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. EspinozaSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	2	5	2	2	3	15

Player

.143

.000

.250

.182

.000

.250

.200

.182

.286

.143

.000

.200

.000

.000

.333

.500

.286

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	2.2	1	0	0	1	2	--
R. FreyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. BaumannSP	2.0	3	2	2	0	4	--
I. MejiaSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
H. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	--
A. PopeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
B. EnlowSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	13	0

Player

2.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Keaschall2B	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. RodenLF	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinRF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.308	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. GonzalezRF	.556	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. FedkoLF	.111	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
H. MendezOF	.143	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CulpepperSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.250	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezCF	.462	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerCF	.091	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		30	2	5	2	0	3	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AbelSP	3.0	1	0	0	0	6	--
C. PrielippSP	2.0	1	1	1	2	2	--
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Z. KentRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
E. OrzeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	--
T. AdamsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	15	0

Team

ATL

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs ATL.