Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+2KC

MIL

4-6

5-4-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

7,160 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.732

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.316

5.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIL 1 · KC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Rengifo3B	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. SanchezC	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. BaddooLF	.455	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Wilken3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. MadeSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. QueroC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. LaraCF	.316	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
Jon Adams3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Adamczewski2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Boeve2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. LeonardSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Burke1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. EbelSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RodríguezC	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DickinsonSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RagsdaleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	1	8	1	0	1	12

Player

.273

.000

.200

.455

.222

.200

.000

.200

.316

.200

.250

.000

.500

.250

.000

.667

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PatrickRP	2.0	2	1	1	2	2	--
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
G. AndersonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
C. YohoRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
P. StrzeleckiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. WaguespackRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. StallingsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	8.0	8	3	3	4	6	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. CollinsLF	.111	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.125	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. JensenC	.417	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.385	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.182	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.154	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. KaiserSS	.364	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VazquezSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Kulasingham1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BrownC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GentryRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	8	3	1	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	2.0	4	1	1	0	3	--
M. WachaSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
M. SpenceRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
L. AvilaRP	2.0	3	0	0	1	3	--
Team	9.0	8	1	1	1	12	0

Team

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs MIL.