Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+5CLE

COL

6-4

CLE

5-5

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

3,269 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Sean SullivanCOL
4.0± 4.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CLE

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.325

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.64

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

5.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.77

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

COL 3 · CLE 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
CLE	1	0	2	1	0	3	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SullivanC	.500	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
E. Julien2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Ritter2B	.412	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.357	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Stevens2B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. JohnstonRF	.222	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
A. Amador2B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. VeenLF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. AvansLF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. McCannC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Kent2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CondonOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Hedges2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. CapelLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. HillRF	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	5	3	1	4	8

Player

.500

.167

.412

.357

.250

.222

.235

.286

.125

.143

.167

.500

.000

.077

.000

.667

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DollanderSP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
J. HillRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	--
C. PalmquistSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
R. PetitRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	--
S. SullivanSP	1.2	2	1	1	3	2	--
T. ShookSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	10	8	8	4	9	0

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.625	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.300	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.067	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. ValeraLF	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.385	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. WatsonRF	.600	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. MitchellOF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. HuffC	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Collado1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Velazquez1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BarstadC	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FoxCF	.000	1	2	0	0	0	1	0
G. HoweSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.286	1	1	1	3	1	1	0
J. LampeCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	8	10	8	2	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	3.0	2	1	1	0	3	--
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
M. FestaRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
C. HeuerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
P. AvilaRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
Team	9.0	5	3	3	4	8	0

Team

COL

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs COL.