Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+4CHW

CHW

7-4

CHC

4-6

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

15,270 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CHC

.739

OPS

.718

.736

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.82

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

4.22

Team ERA

4.17

4.21

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 5 · CHC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HaysLF	.250	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. QueroC	.529	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.182	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.286	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
T. MurrayLF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BaldwinLF	.385	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.357	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. HarrisLF	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Gonzalez1B	.182	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. SheltonUN	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ConnorOF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoganCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ZavalaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SprinkleSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Da. Baker2B	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Camilletti2B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Galanie1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	5	11	5	4	1	3

Player

.250

.529

.182

.286

.267

.385

.357

.429

.182

.000

.286

.000

.000

.333

.600

.333

.273

.125

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	2.2	3	1	1	2	2	--
G. SchoenleRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. HicksRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
J. LeasureRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
T. GilbertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
R. BoruckiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
L. SimsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
T. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	9.0	8	1	1	4	8	0

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.455	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
I. HappLF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.154	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. BallesterosDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Kingery3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. PreciadoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SouthiseneSS	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Alvarez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeanCF	.150	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Triantos2B	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. ArmasC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BatemanCF	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Le. EspinozaCF	.600	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	8	1	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	2.2	4	3	3	0	1	--
Z. MillsSP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	--
H. HarveyRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
L. LittleRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
C. MartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
G. KippP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	5	5	1	3	0

Team

CHW

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs CHW.