Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

5-4-1

BOS

5-4

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,278 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Shane BazBAL
2.6± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

BOS

.715

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.38

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 8 · BOS 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	8
BOS	1	0	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CowserCF	.154	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.300	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. BeaversRF	.214	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.400	2	2	2	2	0	1	0
H. KjerstadLF	.429	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
T. Estrada2B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.500	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Noda1B	.100	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.111	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
J. FabianCF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ArdoinC	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Ramos3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. NoelRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HandleyC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Estrada2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. IrishC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	11	6	0	6	10

Player

.154

.300

.214

.400

.429

.000

.500

.100

.111

.000

.083

.400

.333

.333

.000

.286

1.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BassittSP	2.0	2	2	2	2	0	--
J. CabreraRP	0.2	3	4	4	2	1	--
Z. BarnhartRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
A. SuarezRP	2.0	1	1	0	1	2	--
L. De LeonP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
A. NunezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
C. FosterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
A. PhamRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	--
Team	9.0	9	7	6	7	8	0

Player

2.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. AbreuRF	.143	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. StorySS	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.462	2	2	2	3	1	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.417	2	2	2	1	0	1	0
M. Mayer2B	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Campbell2B	.214	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. CastroCF	.308	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Ferguson2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. BaezC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. WardCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. RodriguezCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Zanetello3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. WongC	.111	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. JacksonOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KingCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	9	6	1	7	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	3.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
A. ChapmanRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	--
C. FeeneyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. SlatenRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	--
W. OldsRP	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	--
J. WebbRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	--
T. GuerreroRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	--
D. SweetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	8	8	6	10	0

Team

BAL

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs BAL.