Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL+3ARI

CLE

5-6

ARI

6-4

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

11,068 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.7± 2.1high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.6± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

ARI

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.694

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.308

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.23

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CLE 6 · ARI 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	6
ARI	0	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. HalpinCF	.500	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. Brito2B	.167	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
R. Hoskins1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. JonesRF	.176	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.200	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Kieboom3B	.091	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. NunezC	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
C. KayfusLF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
A. Genao3B	.333	2	0	2	1	0	1	0
R. CesariniOF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
Y. Mijares2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. IngleC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AntunezRF	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioCF	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CurleySS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CozartC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. SchubartOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. FranciscaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	6	10	6	2	7	10

Player

.500

.167

.000

.176

.200

.091

.167

.250

.333

.000

.000

.167

.375

.400

.000

.250

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. EspinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
W. DionSP	2.0	4	2	2	0	0	--
T. StephanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	--
D. NikhazySP	0.1	5	4	4	2	1	--
H. StanleyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. DenholmP	2.0	5	3	3	1	1	--
F. AlemanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	8.0	15	9	9	5	6	0

Player

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ThomasCF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.412	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.077	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.294	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.400	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. AmayaSS	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Baker1B	.267	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. RobinsonLF	.417	3	2	3	0	0	0	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.316	3	2	3	2	0	0	0
A. OrtizOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Mejia2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A.J. VukovichCF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Groover1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Melendez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. LoganC	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. RodriguezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	9	15	9	0	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SorokaSP	1.2	4	3	3	3	1	--
A. PerezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
K. GinkelRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
L. AlbrightRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
K. DrakeSP	1.2	3	3	3	2	1	--
S. DubinRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	--
D. JamesonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. GiestingSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	10	6	6	7	10	0

Team

CLE

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CLE.