Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+2TOR

PHI

3-5-1

TOR

2-6-1

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

6,081 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

TOR

.704

OPS

.718

.699

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.310

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

4.12

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

PHI 5 · TOR 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
TOR	0	0	2	0	0	4	1	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CrawfordCF	.333	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
K. SchwarberDH	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.375	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
E. Sosa2B	.333	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.273	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.154	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. De La CruzOF	.250	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
L. PegueroSS	.154	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. NoriOF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DaySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RinconSS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Anthony1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CairoSS	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. McIntoshC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HerediaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	5	9	5	2	3	12

Player

.333

.200

.375

.333

.273

.154

.250

.154

.222

.182

.000

.167

.300

.000

.125

.222

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	4	--
B. KellerRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	--
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	--
G. CabreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
T. MayzaRP	0.1	3	4	2	0	1	--
J. PenaP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	--
T. RichardsRP	1.0	1	1	1	3	0	--
A. McFarlaneSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
Team	8.0	12	7	5	9	8	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.500	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
A. GimenezSS	.273	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.455	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Cowles3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Toman3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.500	1	1	1	0	0	2	0
R. Tirotta3B	.167	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. CaseyOF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Lantigua2B	.600	1	0	1	1	0	2	0
Y. PinangoLF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. SchreckLF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.200	1	1	1	2	1	1	0
Team		35	7	12	6	1	9	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	1.2	1	1	1	1	3	--
J. HahnRP	1.1	3	1	1	1	2	--
C. SeaboldRP	1.1	4	3	3	0	2	--
J. FlemingRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	--
A. BastardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. AndrewsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
B. CellucciRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
Team	9.0	9	5	5	3	12	0

Team

PHI

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs PHI.